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Inflation and interest rates in the US, explained

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What is inflation?

Inflation is the rise in the prices of everyday things over time. In the US it’s usually measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of a typical basket of goods and services. The Federal Reserve’s 2% target uses a related measure, the PCE price index.

Some inflation is normal. The problem is high inflation: if prices rise faster than your pay or your savings, you’re getting poorer without noticing.

Try it: what inflation does to your moneyMove the sliders to change the inflation rate and the number of years.
3%
10

$100 kept as cash would buy

$74

of today’s shopping

Something costing $100 today

$134

in 10 years

At 3% a year, prices double about every 23 years.

Here’s how much prices have risen in recent years, by the yearly average of the CPI:

Year Inflation
2025 2.6%
2024 2.9%
2023 4.1%
2022 8.0%
2021 4.7%
2020 1.2%
2019 1.8%
2018 2.4%
2017 2.1%
2016 1.3%

The 2022 surge is why the Fed raised rates so fast that year and the next. The inflation calculator shows what money from any year since 1913 is worth today.

Why the Fed changes interest rates

The Federal Reserve sets a target for the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other overnight. Other rates follow it.

  • When inflation is too high, the Fed raises rates. Borrowing gets more expensive, people and businesses spend less, and price rises slow down.
  • When the economy is weak, the Fed cuts rates to encourage borrowing and spending.

What it means for you

What you have When rates rise
Savings account Pays more, especially high-yield accounts
Credit card Costs more: the rate follows the Fed within a month or two
Fixed-rate mortgage No change to your payment
Adjustable-rate mortgage, HELOC Payments can go up at the next reset
New car loan or mortgage Costs more to take out

New fixed-rate mortgages follow long-term bond yields more than the Fed’s rate, so they don’t always move together.

Rates right now

The latest averages, which our calculators start from:

Borrowing Average rate
Prime rate (HELOCs and many cards are priced from it) 7.00%
30-year fixed mortgage 7.24%
New car loan, 60 months 7.54%
Personal loan, 24 months 11.90%
Credit cards charging interest 22.36%
  • The prime rate was 7.00% on 23 October 2026 (Federal Reserve).
  • Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate was 7.24% on 29 October 2026.
  • New 60-month car loans at banks averaged 7.54% in August 2026 (Federal Reserve).
  • 24-month personal loans at banks averaged 11.90% in August 2026 (Federal Reserve).
  • Credit cards that charged interest averaged 22.36% in August 2026 (Federal Reserve).

Your own rate depends on your credit score, the lender and the loan. Card rates sit far above the others, which is why paying off card debt is usually the best return you can get.

Beating inflation

What matters is your real return: what your money earns after inflation. Savings paying 4% when inflation is 3% grow by about 1% a year in real terms. Cash that earns nothing loses value every year.

  • Keep your emergency fund in a high-yield savings account.
  • For goals more than five years away, investing has historically beaten inflation by more. See investing basics.
  • Series I savings bonds and TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) are designed to keep pace with inflation.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Federal Reserve’s inflation target?

2% a year, measured by the PCE price index. The CPI, the figure most often in the news, usually runs a little higher.

Do mortgage rates follow the Fed?

Not directly. Credit card and adjustable rates follow the Fed’s rate closely, but new fixed-rate mortgages follow long-term bond yields, so they can move before or differently from the Fed.

How do I protect my savings from inflation?

Keep your emergency fund in a high-yield savings account, invest money for goals more than five years away, and consider Series I bonds or TIPS, which are designed to keep pace with inflation.

Money basics · Lesson 5 of 9

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